The 2018 Oscars - Who Will Win & Who Should Win

Ladies and gentlemen, in just a few hours, the 90th Annual Academy Awards will take place from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California. Kmarko has already posted his yearly Oscars blog (which is a truly fantastic read and deserves an Oscar of its own), but elected to let me cover the actual nominees and winners this year, so I’ve selected a dozen of the main awards to preview. I’ll give my prediction as to who I think will win, my pick as to who I thought should win, and then contextualize a bit for both selections below them. Will Leo finally get his Oscar? Well,,, let’s take a look.

BEST PICTURE
‘Call Me by Your Name’
‘Darkest Hour’
‘Dunkirk’
‘Get Out’
‘Lady Bird’
‘Phantom Thread’
‘The Post’
‘The Shape of Water’
‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’

WILL WIN: ‘The Shape of Water’

2017 was a phenomenal year for cinema. The Best Picture category is up for grabs as much as it has been since 2010, and I truly don’t even have a clue who is taking home the statue this year. I think ‘Three Billboards’ was probably the favorite leading into the Golden Globes, where it won the award for Best Drama Motion Picture, but I believe the recent controversy around the supposed “redemption arc” given to Sam Rockwell’s extremely racist character may have shied away voters in fear of tainting the award ceremony. Don’t wanna be on the wrong side of history for that one. The field is then left wide open, and broken up into two pretty simple tiers.

Tier I (Could Win) – ‘Lady Bird’, ‘The Shape of Water’, ‘Get Out’, ‘Dunkirk’

Tier II (Can’t Win) – ‘Call Me by Your Name’, ‘Darkest Hour’, ‘Phantom Thread’, ‘The Post’

Out of the four in Tier I, I think ‘The Shape of Water’ has the best shot at winning, if only for its one-scene homage to old timey Hollywood dance numbers. Hollywood loves Hollywood, don’t you ever forget that. After that, I’d go ‘Lady Bird’, ‘Get Out’, and ‘Dunkirk’ in that order.

SHOULD WIN: ‘Wind River’

Yep, that’s right. I reckon ‘Wind River’, a film not even nominated or recognized in any way by the Academy, should be the winner in this category. I had ‘Get Out’ as my SHOULD WIN for a while, but as much as I love that movie, it’s never gives off that BEST PICTURE vibe, you know? ‘Wind River’, starring Jeremy Renner and Elizabeth Olsen, very much gives off that vibe and I’ve been ranting and raving about it for months now. No movie in 2017 left me on the edge of my seat, clenching my asshole like I was driving a car for the first time like this one. The “Why are you flanking me?” scene was as intense a moment you’ll ever see in a film, and the filmmaker’s choice to show such a heinous act shortly afterwards was insanely bold, and while tough to watch, unforgettable. ‘Wind River’ is MY president.

LEAD ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, ‘Call Me by Your Name’
Daniel Day-Lewis, ‘Phantom Thread’
Daniel Kaluuya, ‘Get Out’
Gary Oldman, ‘Darkest Hour’
Denzel Washington, ‘Roman J. Israel, Esq.’

WILL WIN: Gary Oldman, ‘Darkest Hour’

‘Darkest Hour’ wasn’t necessarily my cup of tea, but much like Daniel Day Lewis did in ‘Lincoln’, Gary Oldman delivered a performance so encapsulating that the movie was much better off because of it. It wasn’t bad by any means, it just wasn’t my favorite out of the ‘Best Picture’ roster. I do think Oldman is a great choice for this award though, and this Oscar has been a long time coming for my pal.

Unbelievable career Gar.

SHOULD WIN: Robert Pattinson, ‘Good Time’

Another category, another massive snub from the nominations I think should’ve won. Robert Pattinson was so fucking awesome in ‘Good Time’ that I don’t know how he isn’t the biggest star on the planet, being casted in everything ever. Maybe because ‘Good Time’ is a really weird dark movie that nobody saw? But yeah, anyway Edward from Twilight was the best actor I saw last year. He plays the scummiest trashbag from Queens you could ever imagine that’ll shock you with how bad his decision making is over and over and over again. Check out the flick, you might dig it.

LEAD ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, ‘The Shape of Water’
Frances McDormand, ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’
Margot Robbie, ‘I, Tonya’
Saoirse Ronan, ‘Lady Bird’
Meryl Streep, ‘The Post’

WILL WIN: Frances McDormand, ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’

I’ve got no problem with Frances McDormand winning here. I think she deserves it. BUT…

SHOULD WIN: Sally Hawkins, ‘The Shape of Water’

I enjoyed Sally Hawkins in ‘The Shape of Water’ a lot more. She didn’t speak a single word in the entire film, as she played a mute janitor, but the fact that she made me care so much about her character with only her eyes is a testament to her talent. Sure, it’s a bit gimmicky, but it worked for me.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, ‘The Florida Project’
Woody Harrelson, ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’
Richard Jenkins, ‘The Shape of Water’
Christopher Plummer, ‘All the Money in the World’
Sam Rockwell, ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’

WILL WIN: Sam Rockwell, ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’
SHOULD WIN: Sam Rockwell, ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’

Unquestionably the best supporting actor role of the year, regardless of which side of the controversy fence you fall on. Sam Rockwell probably should’ve won for ‘Moon’ in 2009, so this is a long time coming for him.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige, ‘Mudbound’
Allison Janney, ‘I, Tonya’
Lesley Manville, ‘Phantom Thread’
Laurie Metcalf, ‘Lady Bird’
Octavia Spencer, ‘The Shape of Water’

WILL WIN: Allison Janney, ‘I, Tonya’
SHOULD WIN: Allison Janney, ‘I, Tonya’

I just used the word “unquestionably” about Sam Rockwell winning the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor, but for Allison Janney in ‘I, Tonya’, put the “unquestionably” on steroids and maybe it’ll be fit then. I knew within the first fifteen minutes of the movie that the Oscar was hers, because she overshadowed Margot Robbie’s stellar portrayal of Tonya Harding to the degree that it just seemed okay. This may have been the overall best acting done by anyone all year.

DIRECTOR
‘Dunkirk’ Christopher Nolan
‘Get Out’ Jordan Peele
‘Lady Bird’ Greta Gerwig
‘Phantom Thread’ Paul Thomas Anderson
‘The Shape of Water’ Guillermo del Toro

WILL WIN: ‘The Shape of Water’ Guillermo del Toro

I think the Golden Globes foreshadowed a Guillermo del Toro win at the Oscars, especially with how positive the response to his win was and how beloved he is in the industry. I love the guy, so I’ll be really happy if he gets to take the stage tonight.

SHOULD WIN: ‘Dunkirk’ Christopher Nolan

Our old pal Christopher Nolan deserves the award in my eyes, however. I thought ‘Dunkirk’ was probably the second weakest Nolan film ever after ‘Insomnia’, but I can’t deny the masterful directing done by Nolan to tell a story through the unique means of showing and not telling. Plus I respected the continued refusal to let Tom Hardy act without covering his beautiful face. Put it away, Tom, save some for the rest of us.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
‘The Big Sick’ Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
‘Get Out’ Jordan Peele
‘Lady Bird’ Greta Gerwig
‘The Shape of Water’ Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’ Martin McDonagh

WILL WIN: ‘Get Out’ Jordan Peele
SHOULD WIN: ‘Get Out’ Jordan Peele

While ‘Get Out’ didn’t give me the BEST PICTURE vibe, it seems like a shoe-in for the Original Screenplay award. All four of the other nominees are deserving, but none of their screenplays feature as many twists and turns and intricacies that can be dissected months after the film. I’m still finding things I missed in ‘Get Out’. It’s like a puzzle that may never be completed, but one that you’ll never stop trying to find all of the pieces to. I’d LOVE for ‘The Big Sick’ to pull of an upset, though, just because of how much I adore that movie.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
‘Call Me by Your Name’ James Ivory
‘The Disaster Artist’ Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
‘Logan’ Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
‘Molly’s Game’ Aaron Sorkin
‘Mudbound’ Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

WILL WIN: ‘Call Me by Your Name’

Folks, I fuckin’ hated ‘Call Me by Your Name’. I don’t know why I watched the whole thing. I found two characters likable/relatable. One was Elio’s dad who gives a really heartwarming speech at the end of the film, and the other was Elio’s girlfriend that he uses as a beard while he cheats on her with Oliver. I thought Elio and Oliver were both really exaggerated bad stereotypes of characters commonly used in film (one being the overconfident jock on the surface who turns out to be a smart, understanding guy, the other being the angsty teen with emotional problems) and incredibly annoying. I only really liked them as people when they were like, fucking, which sounds really weird to say, but I was kinda just like, “Hey, at least they have each other!” One of my least favorite movies of the year.

SHOULD WIN: ‘Logan’ (or any other movie in this category)

‘Logan’ is the first comic book movie to ever get an Adapted Screenplay nod, so I’m rooting for it on behalf of all nerds. Really though, I’m rooting AGAINST ‘Call Me by Your Name’. Let ‘The Disaster Artist’ have this one and actually give Tommy Wiseau mic time, I don’t know. Anything but ‘Call Me by Your Name’.

ANIMATED FEATURE
‘The Boss Baby’ Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
‘The Breadwinner’ Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
‘Coco’ Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
‘Ferdinand’ Carlos Saldanha
‘Loving Vincent’ Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

WILL WIN: ‘Coco’
SHOULD WIN: ‘Coco’

DUHHHHHHH. Sorry Nate. ‘Coco’ is as easy a pick as Allison Janney is for ‘I, Tonya’. Weird that ‘The Lego Batman Movie’ didn’t get nominated here, though, if Ferdinand the fucking bull did. I’ll now use that as a swift transition to remind you how badly I owned Trill Ballins online.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
‘Blade Runner 2049′ Roger Deakins
‘Darkest Hour’ Bruno Delbonnel
‘Dunkirk’ Hoyte van Hoytema
‘Mudbound’ Rachel Morrison
‘The Shape of Water’ Dan Laustsen

WILL WIN: ‘Blade Runner 2049′
SHOULD WIN: ‘Blade Runner 2049′

I care more about this award than any award all night. I know that might sound crazy but Roger Deakins has been one of the most talented motherfuckers in the game for years and that gold man has been ever so elusive to him forever. I mean, fuck, in 2008 he got nominated against himself and STILL lost! What the shit is that?!

‘Blade Runner 2049′ was one of my favorite flicks I saw all year and probably the most beautiful I’ve ever seen cinematography-wise, so it’s Deakins or bust tonight. He loses, we riot.

ORIGINAL SCORE
‘Dunkirk’ Hans Zimmer
‘Phantom Thread’ Jonny Greenwood
‘The Shape of Water’ Alexandre Desplat
‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ John Williams
‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’ Carter Burwell

WILL WIN: ‘The Shape of Water’ Alexandre Desplat

One of ‘The Shape of Water”s greatest strength’s is its score, and in the very first scene of the film I picked up on that and said to myself, “This is an Oscar-bait score’. Close your eyes, picture the presenters for this award getting on stage and saying “The nominees are…”, and think about what kind of snippets of music they play in those brief moments. ‘The Shape of Water”s score is one bit snippet from that. The Academy will be cumming themselves over it.

SHOULD WIN: ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ John Williams

John Williams scores his FIFTY FIRST Oscar nom tonight. GOAT. Give him this one for his superb job on Ryan Johnson’s masterpiece, ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’.

VISUAL EFFECTS
‘Blade Runner 2049′ John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2′ Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
‘Kong: Skull Island’ Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
‘War for the Planet of the Apes’ Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist

WILL WIN: ‘Blade Runner 2049′
SHOULD WIN: ‘Blade Runner 2049′

A big part of the reason ‘Blade Runner 2049′ was one of the most beautiful films I’ve ever seen was thanks to the visual effects team that worked on it. As much as I wish I could sit here and say that ‘The Last Jedi’ or ‘Guardians Vol. 2′ deserve the award for special effects, I just can’t. They both showed me things we saw in previous movies in their respective franchises, and ‘Blade Runner 2049′ showed me shit I’ve NEVER seen before, and hid all of their effects in reality. I couldn’t separate what was real and what wasn’t in that flick, and that’s total movie magic on display, so I hope this goes to John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer.

That’s it for me here! Agree/disagree with my predictions/picks? Want to know my take on any other categories/previous years of the Oscars? Tweet me @RobbieBarstool where I’ll be livetweeting the Oscars with everyone else in the world, and come back tomorrow morning for the biggest and best Oscars Wrap Party blog you’ve ever seen, tag teamed by myself and KFC!